We are officially in the running season! Spring and early summer are when the majority of major running events take place. Perfect weather conditions allow runners (and spectators) to enjoy the race. But the insights go far beyond the finish line, and sports can reveal how we make decisions, respond to incentives, and behave under pressure.

So, let’s talk about running and economics!

Last Sunday, Will ran the Manchester Marathon 2026. Chatting with friends who were also running, I realised that the predicted race time they give when they sign up (which later determines their starting wave) didn’t seem entirely neutral.

Let me be more specific. In general, the gap between their predicted and actual race time was more conservative for women than men. Interestingly, many of the women
ended up performing better than their predicted times, while only some men overshot theirs.

Of course, this is just a small sample, and we can’t draw conclusions. In behavioural economics, we call this the law of small numbers, as it may not represent the broader population. But it made me curious, and I did some research. There is a large body of research in behavioural economics suggesting that, on average, women tend to be more risk-averse than men (some examples are: Borghans et al., 2009; Meissner et al., 2022; Nelson, 2015). In everyday life, this might show up in financial decisions or career choices. But in sports, it can translate into something very concrete, such as pacing strategy or outperforming expectations (Niederle and Vesterlund, 2007; Deaner et al.,
2015). In endurance events like marathons, pacing is everything.

This idea connects closely to something we explored previously at the Great Scottish Run in Glasgow, another race Will ran a few years ago. Yes, he is into running. This time
he ran with his sister and brother-in-law; Sofia was, of course, a spectator. As in every race, there were pacemakers (or pace setters). These individuals are often overlooked, but they play a crucial role in shaping race dynamics. The wave you are assigned to is based on your predicted finish time (that’s your expectation); there will be a pacemaker that meets that expectation, and many other people in your wave who believe they are
also going to finish within that timeline. You may be inclined to follow that pace during the race, but if you are overestimating your potential and finish time, that could be an issue.

Research by Emerson and Hill (2018), using data from major marathons like Berlin, Chicago, and London, shows that competing against slightly faster runners can actually slow you down. In fact, being matched with someone just one second faster can add up to 40 seconds to your final time. Why? Because you may push too hard early on; you deviate from your optimal pace; you respond to others rather than your own ability.

So, let’s link ideas! Pacers and competitors influence your behaviour, and which pacer you follow and which wave you are assigned to may also be linked to your ultimate performance. Your own risk preferences shape your strategy; if you get too ambitious, it
can actually slow you down. I don’t say this, Emerson and Hill (2018) do!

Women, on average, may adopt more cautious strategies, and in endurance contexts, that can actually be an advantage. Men, on average, may take on more risk, sometimes leading to stronger performances, but also greater variability. In other words, marathon running isn’t just physical. It’s deeply behavioural.

The next time you watch (or run) a race, think about what’s happening beyond the stopwatch: are runners following their own plan, or reacting to others? Are they pacing themselves realistically, or optimistically? How much of performance is ability… and
how much is decision-making?

Because whether it’s running a marathon, making an investment, or choosing a career path, the same principles apply.

References:

Borghans, L., Golsteyn, B. H. H., Heckman, J. J., & Meijers, H. (2009). Gender differences in risk aversion and ambiguity aversion. Journal of the European Economic Association,
7(2–3), 649–658.

Deaner, R. O., Carter, R. E., Joyner, M. J., & Hunter, S. K. (2015). Men are more likely than women to slow in the marathon. Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise, 47(3), 607–616.

Emerson, J. W., & Hill, B. (2018). Peer effects in marathon racing: The role of pace setters. Labour Economics, 51, 89–99.

Meissner, T., et al. (2022). Gender differences in risk preferences: A global perspective.

Nelson, J. A. (2015). Are women really more risk-averse than men? A re-analysis of the literature. Journal of Economic Surveys, 29(3), 566–585.

Niederle, M., M., & Vesterlund, L. (2007). Do women shy away from competition? Do men compete too much? Quarterly Journal of Economics, 122(3), 1067–1101